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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-06 > 1212318104


From: Vincent Vizachero <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] matches at 66 out of 67 markers
Date: Sun, 1 Jun 2008 07:01:44 -0400
References: <cef.34f0a5e0.3571f518@aol.com><420EC333-F124-421B-9148-D220B002095C@vizachero.com><015b01c8c2d5$f7e34b30$6401a8c0@HP><BA9BC335-063A-48E2-92F7-6A1EECEC1FEA@vizachero.com><001c01c8c367$1dc310b0$6401a8c0@HP><A6A4B693-4FAF-40A4-B110-433A4A237083@vizachero.com><005a01c8c3be$363f9bc0$6401a8c0@HP>
In-Reply-To: <005a01c8c3be$363f9bc0$6401a8c0@HP>


In Diana's world, apparently, the lottery is not a gamble because you
get a ticket when you spend your dollar.

The point of the analogy remains, despite attempts at perpetual
mischaracterization: everyone who undertakes a genealogical DNA test
should clearly understand their own reasons for doing so.

If you are taking it to test some genealogical hypothesis, then you
must choose a test that can actually do so with sufficient and
appropriate power.

If you are taking it because you hope to "get lucky" and find some
way around a brick wall of one sort or another, then you should
understand your long odds of success and adjust your expectations
accordingly.

I dislike repeating myself, but I will add that I am in no way
disparaging the second application. I've done it myself, hoping a
full mtDNA sequencing would eventually help me around a paper trail
that goes cold in Illinois in the mid-1800s. That (somewhat pricey)
ticket has not yet paid off but it may in the future and I don't
regret purchasing it.

Vince


On Jun 1, 2008, at 4:05 AM, Diana Gale Matthiesen wrote:

> Well, to beat the point to death...
>
> Being DNA tested is not gambling with your money because you *will*
> get a
> result. As to whether the result will be what you want or expect,
> that is
> *always* a gamble -- for everyone who is tested, with or without a
> prior
> hypothesis. The person without a paper pedigree has *more* reason
> to be DNA
> tested than someone with a paper pedigree, not less.

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