GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-07 > 1217115461


From: "Tim Janzen" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Dating of R-M269 and Subclades, part 1
Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:37:41 -0700
In-Reply-To: <072620080220.2931.488A89DC000CAC3300000B73220588617290019C019704050E@comcast.net>


Dear Anatole, David, Dienekes, Ken, Vince, Alan, and others,
Using my TMRCA calculator program at
http://www.timjanzen.com/dna.html that utilizes the variance method
originally suggested by Ken Nordtvedt earlier this year I get the following
TMRCA estimates for R1a based on a download of the R1a data in May from the
FTDNA R1a project web site at
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1aY-Haplogroup:

Project JH -M KN -M JH +M KN +M # of haplotypes # of markers
R1a 8281 4558 7811 4738 378 12
R1a 5978 4383 5578 3352 254 37
R1a 5801 4380 5472 3297 133 67

The calculations include variations in which I ignored the data for
all of the multi-copy markers (DYS 385, DYS 395, DYS 413, DYS 425, DYS 459,
DYS 464, YCA II, and CDY) and where I retained all the data. The ages using
Ken's method are designated as "KN". The ages using James Heald's method as
described by him earlier this year are designated as "JH". The ages where
all of the multi-copy markers are retained are designated as "+M" and the
ages where all of the multi-copy markers were ignored are designated as
"-M". I also calculated DYS 389B after subtracting DYS 389i from DYS 389ii
and included DYS 389B in the calculations.
I then ran the above 133 R1a 67 marker haplotypes and 299 R1b 67
marker haplotypes that have been confirmed by SNP testing that are from the
FTDNA web sites through an updated version of my program that calculates the
approximate number of years ago when two different haplogroups or subclades
branched off from each other in similar fashion to how Ken's Generations2
program works. Here are the results:

TMRCA for R1b and R1a (when including all markers): 11,909 years
(95% confidence interval is 1784 years)

TMRCA for R1b and R1a (when excluding all multi-copy markers): 12,080 years
(95% confidence interval is 1797 years)

TMRCA for R1b and R1a using Ken's Generations2 program (which excludes
markers DYS 385, DYS 389ii, DYS 425, DYS 459, DYS 464, and CDY): 14,520
years

I also ran the 6 R2 67 marker haplotypes from the FTDNA R2 project
at http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R2 and the 10 R1b1* 67 marker
haplotypes that have been confirmed by SNP testing that are from the R1b1*
FTDNA web site at http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1b1Asterisk through
the program. Here are the results:

TMRCA for R2 and R1b1* (when including all markers): 23,243 years
(95% confidence interval is 2383 years)

TMRCA for R2 and R1b1* (when excluding all multi-copy markers): 16,334 years

(95% confidence interval is 2090 years)

TMRCA for R2 and R1b1* using Ken's Generations2 program (which excludes
markers DYS 385, DYS 389ii, DYS 425, DYS 459, DYS 464, and CDY): 21,510
years

To be continued with the next message.
Tim Janzen

This thread: