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From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Age of R1b
Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2008 13:33:23 +0000 (GMT)


 
I would love to know the MRCA and interclade MRCA relating to S-128-ve group.  I suppose a SE concentrated ancestral form is not a big surprise and doesn't gain us a lot as almost every intrusion into western/central Europe from outside seems to have taken a vaguely SE/E to W/NW trajectory but its nice that it may make some sort of sense. 
 
I can see the Med. and Danube dual route idea clearly is driving towards the dual Cardial and LBK initial Neolithic spread into the west.   There is a lot to be said for the  for idea as it was also a demographic event.  It makes a great deal of sense in some ways although it does make one wonder why R1b would be so successful twice.  Anyway, I think it works rather well with S116 (via Cardial) passing to Italy and the Alpine areas via the Rhone and also heading along the north coast of the Med, then around the Atlantic side of Iberia and France.  The role of the Cardial and LBK cultures is a little more vague inland in Iberia and inland France but some sort of secondary Cardial expansion was likely important while its normally thought that LBK had after reaching the Rhine mouth expanded into north-east France where they may have met and mixed with epi-Cardial elements and perhaps natives. 
 
The fly in the ointment is probably the north of France and the British Isles.  The later had a fairly uniform (in broad terms) Early Neolithic culture which doesn't neatly exactly match any continental one.  Most likely source for the Neolithic of the British Isles is northern France with Ireland settled secondarily from Britain.  I was generally given the impression that northern French Neolithic was rather more LBK influenced than Cardial (classic Cardial only extends along rhe western coast of France to the Loire) but the British Isles were only settled when Classic LBK cultures had given way for some time.   However, it is possible that northern France had a hybrid of both and a lot of chance and extinction is involved.
 
Anyway, all of this requires the sources of LBK (Hungary) and Cardial (Adriatic Balkans) to have harboured R1b at the time of the expansions.  How it got there is also interesting.  Did it arrive with the Neolithic from Turkey to the Adriatic to the southern-central Balkans and then on to Hungary and the Adriatic Balkans or was it a native group who were there pre-farming?  Being successful twice in the Neolithic spread would tilt me towards a Neolithic arrival.  This would all point to the Anatolian origin as the area north of the Black Sea was a relative backwater. 
 
 Just a thought, but it is now thought that the Younger Dryas triggered farming in the area of its origin in Mesopotamia and eastern Turkey area.  Is it possible that some elements of R1b Mesolithic groups in the Caucuses or north of the Black Sea may have been driven by the YD decline southwards from or through the Caucuses and into the fringes of the agricultural revolution area before expanding west through Asia Minor.  I have always been troubled by the Black Sea lying between this Neolithic route and the ancestral R1b forms on the steppes but this scenario might explain this. 
 
 Alan

 
Vince said
For the purposes of this discussion, there is one important marker upstream of both S116 and U106 (aka S21).  That maker is S128.  Actually there are two other SNPs that are phylogenetically equivalent, but let's just overlook that detail for now.

As it stands, most people in R-M269 who are positive for S128 are positive for either S116 or for U106.  Only a very small number of S128+ U106- S116- people have  been found, but we are finding them in places we might expect to:  central and western Europe.  The distribution of U106 appears to be focused on north-central Europe.  The distribution of S116 seems to be more focused on the Atlantic facade.  My current opinion, based on what I have observed so far in limited data, is that R-S128 represents what we once called ht15.

We also have a small group of people who are M269+ S128-.  This group is spread throughout Europe, but picks up frequency dramatically in southeast Europe.  In Italy, for example, it is the second most common form of R1b (after R-U152, which is S116+ and appears to have an Alpine centroid). Because this is a paragroup, not a proper clade, getting a handle on TMRCA is a little more difficult than for S116+ and for S128+.

I have been quiet about ht35 in part because I am wanting more data from these new SNPs, and in part because I think we can start to talk about the SNPs and leave the archaic TaqI 49a,f system (which produces the ht15, ht35, etc. haplotypes) behind for good.

At first draft, if someone forced me to "map" R-M269 to specific routes I'd say R-S116 or its ancestor took a Mediterranean route into Europe and that R-U106 or it ancestor took a Danubian route.  It is probably premature to be so specific, but what's a little speculation among friends?

Vince




On Sep 7, 2008, at 4:29 PM, Alan R wrote:

Is there any hint of ancestral forms bridging the gap between the upstream Asian and European R1b? I though that there was an eastern European/ Turkish form called ht35 or something that might bridge the gap but I have heard nothing recently.    I wonder if a date can be established by comparing the interclade MRCA of all western European R1b with the an interclade MRCA date for something upstream from it, some ancestral form of western European R1b, in an attempt to get two dates between which the arrival of European S116-/S21- must have happened. Sorry but I am a bit vague on the markers upstream of S116 and the distribution of R1b as one moves back step by step into more and more ancestral forms.



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