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From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] rs11799226- any early guesses as to what this is hintingat?
Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 13:57:38 +0000 (GMT)


So whats this all mean?  Clearly, we need people from the known clades and clusters to test and also a decent geographical spread.  S21 and S28 and some of the Iberian R1b clades are ancestral and a group of British Isles surnames (sound lke two Irish, one Welsh and one English) are derived.  What is this hinting?  I know its extremely early days to make conclusions and technically grossly unscientific when the sample is so small but that sort of suggests there was a north-westwards branching off of some sort, maybe in northern France or nearby.  From what I hear the derived folk are genetically diverse enough to suggest this was not in historical times and names and the surnames are totally unconnected so sounds like something that spread out across the British Isles as a whole in prehistory.  I wonder if the derived folk will encompass most of the R1b1bc* (old style) people of Europe or will it split the group in two (that would be my
hope).  It wouldn't take a huge amount of other testers to get strong hints of the broad pattern. 

I know this is hugely jumping the gun but I like to have a working hypothesis.  Recent breakthroughs do seem to suggest to me that R1b entered Europe from the SE (S116- S21-) and travelled along the Danube. Then in central Europe a mutation and founder effect occurred in a lineage of that group somewhere along the that upper Rhine as they followed that river (the S21 line).  Another lineage (S116+ rs11799226-) behind them experienced the S116 mutation and a founder effect somewhere in west-central Europe (perhaps near the Upper Rhine-Upper Danube or just to the east) about the same time.  Some stayed put and experienced a founder effect (S28).  Others of this group headed west along west-central Europe (and beyond into France and later into Iberia??- that really needs answered). A lineage of the S116+  folk acquired the rs11799226 mutation.  I would guess this also happened in the middle reaches of west bank of the Rhine and involved a
movement west into the north of France from there before jumping from there to Britain.  This north-west branching scenario obviously wont work unless the Iberian S116 turns out to be ancestral to rs11799226.   

I think it will be fascinating to see the geographical distribution of rs1179926 derived and ancestral R1b1c* (old style) people and how they fall.  I am particularly interested to see if Iberian R1b1c* is ancestral.  If so, that would suggest that the rs11799226 derived people of the British Isles arrived from the continent from a point between the more ancestral blocks of various types in Spain and Germany - clearly pointing to northern France.  This would tie in well with a number of archaeological periods because Northern France was clearly the most regularly connected part of Europe with the British Isles in prehistory.  It also would remove the need to derive British Isles R1b from Iberia, something that looks improbable from the archaeological record unless one still believes in Palaeolithic refugia there and a Magdalenian spread north.  Its a shame sampling in France is a problem.   

Archaeologically, right now I am thinking the Early Neolithic LBK and derived spreads would fit rather well as a source except in Iberia and Italy where there was no LBK influences and much later intrusions from west-central Europe in the Late Bronze and Early Iron Ages from alpine Europe would have to be envisaged for those areas.  A beaker period scenario is very difficult to explore as there is total disagreement among archaeologists over its origins and directions of spread.  I realise too that a lot may just be due to founder effects in originally mixed groups of R1b clades.  However, these demographic effects are themselves far easier to envisage in periods of crucial demographic change and (if we rule out the Palaeolithic dating) that again strongly points to the Early Neolithic and LBK and derived spread theory.  It is a perfect scenario for explaining the spread of the various forms of R1b although this only works if both Iberia's and
Italy's R1b arrived later from west-central Europe with the Celts.  Does anyone have a MRCA date for Iberian R1b1c* (old style).  It would be interesting its MRCA (in relative terms seeing absolutes cannot be agreed on) is actually relatively recent. 

Alan


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