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From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] DNA] TMRCA for R1b1
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2008 11:27:04 +0000 (GMT)


David

I just have to make a call based on what the more mathematical tell me, consider the basic logic of what is being said and apply my own archaeological knowledge to it.  As Vince says, every new breakthrough keeps pointing to a move from ancestral to more and more derived as one moves from east to west. 

Also, Vince has used the methods of the latest person to publish on the age of R1b.  You often criticise the use of non-published work but Vince has used the very latest published work on the subject and used it to date the emergence of R1b1 from R1.  Karafet dates R1 to the time of the LGM when it would have had to be in one refugia or the other.  The last pre-Neolithic intrusion from the east into west-central Europe was the Badegoullian immediately before the LGM about 18,000BC at which time we would still be talking about R1 according to Karafet, if R was involved at all (which I hugely doubt).  Surely if the Karafet dating applies to the common ancestor of R1b and R1a at around the LGM  then an eastern refugia location is necessary.  Vince has used both STRs and SNPs and they have produced a consistent age. 

I know nothing is cut and dry but its my personal opinion that with every new bit of information an eastern refugia for R1b looks  like the intuitive/Occam's Razor conclusion while a western refugia conclusion is requiring more and more special pleading.  Even if none of us are 100% confident about the absolute dates, as long as consistent methods are used then the relative ages of various forms of R1b (and indeed other haplogroups) can surely be trusted to indicate relative seniority.  If these new refined calculations are saying that western R1b forms are at least half the age of R1b1 (and a fifth of the age of haplogroup I) then I find that pretty convincing evidence that R1b was not in western Europe in pre-Neolithic times.  Where I differ from some is that I dont favour a Bronze Age date for the main spread into the west.  I favour an early Neolithic spread because that was the most profound demographic event in Europe between the LGM and
today. 

As I have posted several times before, I think haplogroup I may have predominated in Palaeolithic Europe.  The fact the pre-farming population was very much a minority input in many areas would have been considered consistent with the archaeological evidence prior to genetic evidence. 
 
Alan


________________________________

From: David Faux <>
To: Alan R <>;
Sent: Thursday, 27 November, 2008 1:13:35 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] DNA] TMRCA for R1b1

Perhaps if I might suggest Alan that you check with Adriano's spreadsheet and you will see everything from soup to nuts in the R1 category.  One R1* fellow has the surname Pickering.  Then there are the huge number of M269 men (w/o P312) who are found across Europe.  There is no need to look east or to some other haplogroup - we don't have anyone from around the Black Sea, just probable descendants of those who emerged from the Franco-Cantabrian, Italian and Balkan refugia. 

The whole world of the molecular clock is in flux for the moment while re-calibrations are completed using either a combination of STR and SNPs as well as suitable figures for mutation rate (that is far far from being settled) as well as effective population size and on and on.  Wish it were so straightforward but at the moment many here seem to believe that M269 is a relative youngester whereas all or most population geneticists (as well as myself) see it as relatively old.  So, we wait.

David K. Faux.
 
On 11/26/08, Alan R <> wrote:
Presumably It also seems to be the case that ancestral forms like this are very rare in the west.  So, this suggests R1b1 or its immediate predecessors were located in an eastern refugia at the time of the post-LGM improvements.  The dates arrived at (11-13,000BC) post-dates the last pre-Neolithic movement into the main body of west/west-central Europe (The Badegoullian of 18,000BC).  This again strongly suggests that R1b1's downstream descendants couldn't have arrived in the west and west-central part of Europe until the Neolithic. Looks more and more with every passing month that us M269 and below folk need to be looking to the area somewhere around the Black Sea (not sure if it was north, south, east or west) as the place where our y-ancestors spent the worst of the Ice Age and forget all about Altimira, Lascuax etc.  I wonder if the younger dryas drove them south into the fringes of the area where agriculture developed as a response to
this decline and they were then swept along westwards with the spread of farming.  

Alan  


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