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From:
Subject: Re: [DNA] Iberian R1b age estimates
Date: Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:40:12 +0000


David Faux wrote:
>I have endured this from the cadre ever since I made it
known that I don't buy into the decision to change what population
geneticists believe in relation to the dating of M269. Hence be aware
before you tred into these treacherous waters what awaits should you chose
not to conform. My non-compliance may be of particular concern due to my
long tenure as a genetic genealogist.

Dear David,
After a rather long (albeit rewarding) absence I glanced onto this glorious battlefield and - with some surprise - have noticed that the dating of M269 was not settled as yet. What has happened?
I admit that I have not seen yet what is a debating issue, I will catch with it later. Below are just some dry data, some of them I showed here a few months back. All the dates below were calculated, examined and verified using several different approaches (i.e., a "linear" method and a "logarithmic" method, both with a correction for reverse mutations, and a "self-correcting" ASD [average squared distance] methods in its two variants, one based on a deduced ancestral haplotype and another was a "permutational" method, which does not require an ancestral haplotype for calculations of a timespan to a common ancestor). Oh, yes, and the data were analyzed using the respective haplotype trees. This will give you a "ladder" of dates, a range of which shows a power of haplotype/mutations-related calculations. Essentially, all the approaches named above gave the same dates (all shown below - in years bp).
H1 Bulgarian and Croatian Gypsies - 550 and 1,125 years bp, respectively
R1a1 Donald 84-haplotype family 650
C2 Polynesians (Maoris, Cook Islanders, Samoans) - 800 (the so-called Polynesian expansion is referred to 650-700 to 800 and even to 1,200 ybp)
R1a1 Ireland, Scotland, England, Sweden, Norway, Czechoslovakia, Poland - 4,100, 4,300, 4,400, 4,250, 4,300, 4,100, 4,550, respectively (can be averaged)
R1a1 across Europe (17 other countries, from Spain and Greece to Denmark and Lithuania) - 4,450
R1a1 Germany - 4,700 (a recent excavation of R1a1 in Germany gave 4,600 ybp dating)
R1a1 Russia/Ukraine and India - 4,825 and 3,675, respectively
R1b1b2 Basques - 4,050 (haplotypes presented in the Basque Project)
U106 - 4,225
U106 with DYS425 null - 3,375
R1b1b2-M269 - 4,375
U152 - 4,450
R1b1b2 in Central Asia - 3,525
R1b1b1-M73 in Central Asia - 750 (25-marker haplotypes) and 1,225 (12-marker haplotypes)
J1 "Cohen Modal Haplotype" - 4,100 and 1,000 (two separate but chronologically consecutive lineages)
J2 "Cohen Modal Haplotype" - 1,450
The Arabic J1 "Cohen Modal Haplotype" (Arabian peninsula) - 9,000
R1a1 in Europe, a common ancestor of both DYS388=12 and DYS388=10 - 5,700
R1a1 the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Macedonia) - 11,650 (13 haplotypes only; they are obviously ancient in terms of mutations, however, more data are needed to verify the data)
Native Americans (Q-M3) - 16,000
*********************
One can see that M269 comfortably sits in a relatively recent section of the ladder at about 4,375 years bp, with its subclades at 4,225 to 4,450 years bp, which fit pretty well within error margin. Basques R1b1b2 with their 4,050 sit nearby. At expansion of their haplotypes they probably can move as far as to about 4,500 years bp, but hardly deeper in time.
If one wants to dispute the ladder, he/she should dispute ALL the data, from the Gypsy (Roma) to the Amerindians, altogether. All of them were calculated using the same approaches, and some data are confirmed (or do not conflict) with independent dating.
I hope it is helpful.
Anatole Klyosov

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