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From: "Richard Stevens" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Tim Janzen's variance calculator results.
Date: Mon, 08 Dec 2008 19:45:05 -0500
References: <708465.22582.qm@web86603.mail.ird.yahoo.com>
In-Reply-To: <708465.22582.qm@web86603.mail.ird.yahoo.com>


Right now we have three men of French ancestry in the R-P312 and Subclades
Project who are awaiting L21 results. None of the three has a haplotype in
that North-South cluster that is running solidly L21-, so we'll see. They
could go either way.

There are four men of German ancestry in our project awaiting L21 results,
but one of them is pretty close to the North-South cluster (though not an
exact fit), so he may well be L21-. There are also two Italians awaiting
L21 results, one from Lombardy and one from Sicily (interestingly, the one
from Sicily has the surname Lombardo). Neither of them is in the North-South
cluster.

There are a number of other men of continental ancestry awaiting L21
results, a couple from Scandinavia, some from Spain and Portugal, one from
Switzerland, one from Belgium, one from the Netherlands. One from Denmark
and that last one from the Netherlands are solidly in the N-S cluster, so
chances are good they are L21-, but the others are anybody's guess.

Of course, these men are in different FTDNA batches, so their results
probably won't come in all at once.

Rich




----- Original Message -----
From: "Alan R" <>
To: <>
Sent: Monday, December 08, 2008 7:04 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Tim Janzen's variance calculator results.


That's a very good point. The first L21+ person must have come from within
an existing L21- population and at least for a long period such a person
needed the sponsorship of his L21- compatriots to have any sort of power at
all. A one man invasion into a well settled country wouldn't get far. Even
with a fair wind and a lot of reproduction it would have been many many
generations and a few centuries growing within a strong L21- population
before an L21+ lineage could have wielded any power. So, as far as I can
see, L21 must have arisen in an L21- area and spend a few centuries growing
somewhere else before they had enough strength to invade anywhere without
also bringing a large L21- component with them in as well. IMO that does not
at all suite Ireland as a likely point of origin. The point of origin is
very likely an area where L21+ and - distribution overlaps to a great
degree. Now that eliminates very L21+ Ireland and very L21-
Iberia as options. It leaves France and England with some the jury out on
some other neighbouring countries. So far there is as much or more L21 in
France than England, something that (if this remains the case once the
sample is a lot bigger) just cant be explained by sub-Roman settlers. This
will become a lot clearer once we have doubled or tripled the French sample.

Of course the other argument is that its surely ridiculous that more than
half of the small sample of S116 French could by chance be Irish descended
folk. I ask what is that chance of that? There is no known out-of-Ireland
prehistoric movement in the archaeological record. So I can only assume that
the sampling issue is distorting reality.

Alan




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