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From: "Anatole Klyosov" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Dr. Wells and his R1b in Iberia for LGM hypothesis
Date: Sat, 21 Mar 2009 08:49:35 -0400
References: <mailman.425.1237618846.22574.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com>


From: "Ken Nordtvedt"
>All good methods lead to about that age estimate.
>It's counting mutations one way or the other.

My response:

And not only counting mutations, but also counting non-mutated haplotypes.


Example 1: 750 R1b1 19-marker haplotypes in Iberia (Adams et al, 2008)

Mutation count gives 3625 ybp to a common ancestor (2796 mutations
from the base/ancestral haplotype (in the 19-marker format employed in
the paper)

14-12-13-16-24-11-13-13-11-11-12-15-12-12-11-12-11-11-14



For a comparison, the AMH in the same format:




14-12-13-16-24-11-13-13--?--?--Y-15-12-12-11-X--X--11-14


There are 16 of those base haplotypes among the 750 haplotypes. It gives

ln(750/16)/0.0285 = 135 generations --> 156 gen (w/correction for back mutations,
the table is the press) --> 3900 ybp.

Hence, we have 3625 ybp (mutations) and 3900 ybp (logarithmic method, based
on non-mutated haplotypes)


Example 2: R1b-U152 Project, 184 12-marker haplotypes total,
568 mutations --> 4075 ybp

Those 184 haplotypes contain 8 base haplotypes,
ln(184/8)/0.022 = 143 gen -->167 gen (w/correction) --> 4175 ybp

The same 184 haplotypes, but 25-marker ones, 1236 mutations --> 4375 ybp


Example 3: R1b-U106 Project, 284 haplotypes, 729 mutations in 12-marker
format --> 3375 ybp
The same 284 haplotypes contain 21 base haplotypes, ln(284/21)/0.022 = 118
gen --> 3350 ybp

The same 284 haplotypes, but 25-marker ones, 1853 mutations --> 4175 ybp


Example 4: R1b-U106 with DYS425=null, 22 haplotypes
12-marker haplotypes, 54 mutations --> 3200 ybp
25-marker haplotypes, 118 mutations --> 3375 ybp


Example 5: R1b-M269, 25-marker haplotypes --> 4450 ybp


Example 6. Now, rough estimate across ALL R1b haplotypes in YSEARCH:
in January 2008 there were
17171 of 6-marker haplotypes, with 21027 mutations in them --> 3650 ybp
16959 of 12-marker haplotypes, with 50040 mutations --> 3950 ybp
12090 of 25-marker haplotypes with 83240 mutations --> 4500 ybp


Example 7: 104 randomly selected 37-marker haplotypes out of those
(see Example 6) gave two clearly separate branches (lineages) on a
haplotype tree, with 4625 and 3950 ybp.


I have many more data sets, and all of them give 3200-4600 ybp for European
R1b. Overall, across the world, they give 16,000 ybp for a common ancestor. But in
Asia (apparently), not in Europe.

Regards,

Anatole Klyosov


----- Original Message -----
From: "Gary Felix"
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2009 8:07 PM

> Evidently Dr. Hammer didn't use STR markers to find an age for M269.
> Anyone know what method of SNP aging was used to determine an age of 4 to
> 8K years for M269 at the conference?
> Apparently information is lacking from all fronts.
> I almost feel like changing the subject back to DNA Conference ;-)
> Gary



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