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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-05 > 1242701065


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] DNA Test Panel Options
Date: Mon, 18 May 2009 20:44:25 -0600
References: <COL109-W33FD716CF34E7EB2AB3B33DE5B0@phx.gbl>


----- Original Message -----
From: "George Chandler" <>
To: <>
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2009 8:30 PM
Subject: [DNA] DNA Test Panel Options


>
> Ken wrote:
>
>
>
> "These will be collected in many fewer packages, perhaps 50, that define
> your
> final tree status. Each package of snps will be found together --- all
> derived or all ancestral --- in almost all males on earth."
>
>
>
> By the sounds of it..trying to locate a mutation downstream of L21 would
> be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Even if I know what
> "package" L21 is contained within - there are still so many other SNP
> mutations to test within each package. >

Not as bad as needle in haystack. Just expensive right now. If you did
enough random walk the ys examining different collections of 100,000 sites,
and comparing yourself to someone not downstream of L21, eventually you will
find an snp downstream of L21. How old is L21? 100 generations? If you
search through 100,000 sites and mutation rate is 2 / 100 million then your
chances of having a mutation downstream of L21 in that search is 100 x
100,000 x 2 / 100 million = 1 in 5

Really, there is no strong reason to find other snps in the same package as
an snp you already know about. They say the same thing about your route
through the tree. There are over 25 snps all defining my own I1* status
right now. The only thing interesting that could possibly happen with them
is some oddball haplotype comes along and is derived for some of them and
ancestral for some of them.



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