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From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: [DNA] Fw: Variance Assessment of R:U106 DYS425Null Cluster
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2010 11:54:03 -0700


Anatole,

> Your 1853 count of mutations is very mysterious. How can you look back
>> 130 generations and count mutations, only seeing the 284 final products?
>> Some mutations back in the tree, indeed over half of them them, will lead
>> to multiple final haplotype manifestations.
>>
>> In any event, 1 sigma for G estimate of clade goes like sqrt (G / M log
>> N)
>> with M being total mutation rate and N being number of final haplotypes,
>> but this is even further modified by details of how the tree unfolded
>> from
>> founder to final haplotypes.
>>
>> Anyway; was your plus/minus 430 years supposed to be 1 sigma or 2 sigma?

>From various studies I have done the statistical 2 sigma confidence interval
for coalescence ages in the ball park of 4000 years is plus or minus 1000
years.
>>
>> Ken



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