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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1265469570


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Variance Assessment of R:U106 DYS425Null Cluster
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2010 08:19:30 -0700
References: <CB3B852E26C64182B4C95D818AEB3D5F@PC>


----- Original Message -----
From: "Lancaster-Boon" <>
To: <>
Sent: Saturday, February 06, 2010 2:00 AM
Subject: [DNA] Variance Assessment of R:U106 DYS425Null Cluster


> Dear Anatole
>
> Apparently there is something "wrong" with the example Ken gives, which
> makes it give a bigger margin of error than the real example you were
> discussing. >> So is your "mutation count" in this example seven (7) or
> ten (10)?
>>
>> (4) 10 10 10 10
>> (1) 10 10 9 10
>> (2) 10 11 10 10
>> (1) 10 9 11 9
>> (2) 10 9 10 9
>
> My response:
>
> Why didn't you give me just two 2 marker haplotypes and request to count
> mutations?

The simple set of short haplotypes was given only for purposes of
understanding what "counting mutations" is supposed to mean in Anatole's
method.
It was not about eventually evaluating a statistical confidence interval.

I maintain that you can not count mutations because they happened in the
past and would require an inference about the whole tree history. One can
only count outcomes of mutations in the sample set of final haplotypes seen
today, after making an interence about a founding haplotype. So my goal
right now is to just find out what Anatole is counting, whatever he wants to
call it.

Ken



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