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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1266226141


From: Gary Felix <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] FW: : variance of S116*
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:29:01 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <201002150804.o1F84rc8013557@mail.rootsweb.com>


Once again, this method as a measure of variance is suspect.

Gary
Mexico DNA Project Admin.

--- On Mon, 2/15/10, Tim Janzen <> wrote:

From: Tim Janzen <>
Subject: [DNA] FW: : variance of S116*
To:
Cc: "'Alan R'" <>
Date: Monday, February 15, 2010, 12:04 AM

Dear Alan,
    It is a good suggestion to look at R-S116/P312* variance data.  I
thus decided to do intraclade TMRCA estimates of the currently available
37-marker and 67-marker R-S116/P312* haplotypes from the FTDNA R-P312
project at http://www.familytreedna.com/public/atlantic-r1b1c/default.aspx 
to see if the current data supports any particular theory in regards to the
area of origin of R-S116/P312* and its spread through Europe.  You summed up
the various hypotheses nicely.  The current data shows that R-S116/P312* has
its highest variance in Eastern Europe.  The hypothesis best supported by
the data is that R-S116/P312* moved along a route through eastern Europe to
the west (possibly along the Danube as you suggest).  We also see that the
variance of R-S116/P312* decreases from east to west, suggesting that the
R-S116/P312 SNP occurred somewhere in Eastern Europe, Russia, or Ukraine.
It also seems clear that R-S116/P312* moved in Spain and Italy (as well as
all of Southern Europe) relatively recently.  The precise timing of the
R-S116/P312 SNP in my opinion is still uncertain, but my best guess is that
it occurred somewhere between 4000 and 7000 years ago.  Also see
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2009-07/12468584
73 for background.  Below are intraclade TMRCA estimates using various
marker sets for groups of haplotypes from various geographical regions as
well as subsets for selected countries or areas.  It should be kept in mind
that intraclade TMRCA estimates are generally lower than the true TMRCA by
some margin, possibly as much as 30% in some cases.
Sincerely,
Tim Janzen



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