GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1266699152


From: "Tim Janzen" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 12:52:32 -0800
In-Reply-To: <7b34da0b1002170429n26ddd7c3o3f603cd6fe12b5a1@mail.gmail.com>


Dear Tibor,
Thanks for your comments in your recent message. I just ran an
interclade TMRCA estimate using the 19 67-marker haplotypes from group D
from your project’s web site compared to the 22 67-marker haplotypes from
group A from your project’s web site. These are the results:

10 slow markers: 19086
10 slow medium markers: 17452
10 medium markers: 4034
10 medium fast markers: 3421
10 fast markers: 3094
50 markers:5548
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 5064
24 slow markers:13518
55 markers using Ken Nordvedt's Generations4 program: 6353

I just ran an interclade TMRCA estimate using the 19 67-marker
haplotypes from group D from your project’s web site compared to the 79
67-marker R-L2+ haplotypes from your project’s web site. These are the
results:

10 slow markers: 21872
10 slow medium markers: 16772
10 medium markers: 3610
10 medium fast markers:3005
10 fast markers: 3301
50 markers:5430
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 4099
24 slow markers: 13460
55 markers using Ken Nordvedt's Generations4 program: 6210

Clearly the estimates from the slow markers are too old (possibly at
least in part because of inaccurate mutation rates) and the estimate using
the 10 fast markers is too young, likely due to saturation of variance. I
still think that an age in the range of 4000-5000 years for U152 is a
reasonable estimate for the true age of this SNP. It should be noted that
Ken's program uses markers from 3 multi-copy markers (395, 413, and YCA II)
that aren't included in my 50 marker set and that Ken is using a different
set of mutation rates for the 38-67 marker group in the 67-marker panel.
I agree that it is important to separate the U152 haplotypes into
smaller subgroups as best as can be done using available downstream SNPs and
the DYS 492 split for overall review. However, if you do this, you are left
with relatively few haplotypes per country or region for the purposes of
doing intraclade TMRCA estimates for each of the 4 main subgroups. In any
case, I decided to do intraclade TMRCA estimates for just the L2-
haplotypes. I removed all of the L2+ haplotypes from your database and then
sorted the L2- haplotypes by country or region. I categorized these 27
haplotypes into 6 countries or regions:
1. SE Europe (Hungary, Bukovina, Transylvania, and Bohemia)
2. Italy
3. Germany
4. Switzerland
5. France
6. NE Europe (Poland and Latvia)

The following are intraclade TMRCA estimates for each of the above 6
subgroups:
7 37-marker samples from SE Europe:
25 markers: 4437
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3929

2 37-marker samples from NE Europe (Poland and
Latvia):
25 markers: 3125
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 1362

3 37-marker samples from Italy:
25 markers: 1263
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2422

7 67-marker samples from Germany:
50 markers: 2857

8 37-marker samples from Germany:
25 markers: 1971
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2980

3 37-marker samples from Switzerland:
25 markers: 1936
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 1614

4 37-marker samples from France:
25 markers: 3788
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 1135


I agree with you that there really isn't any substantial information
that would support the theory that U152 originated in Ukraine. There is
only one person (a Tesler) in your project that traces their origin to
Ukraine. This person may well have been of Jewish origin and could have
been a relatively recent immigrant to Ukraine from somewhere in Europe. I
think that your theory that U152 originated somewhere in central Europe is
certainly reasonable. However, I think the data would suggest that the area
of origin was likely north of the Alps or east of the Alps rather than being
south of the Alps. The above data would suggest that SE Europe (Hungary or
thereabouts) is the most likely area of origin for U152. From there it
seems probable that the haplogroup spread northwest into southern Germany
and then later it spread south or west into Switzerland and Italy.
Sincerely,
Tim Janzen


________________________________________
From: Tibor Fehér [mailto:]
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 4:29 AM
To: Tim Janzen
Cc: ; Alan R
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*

Hi Tim and Alan,
 
 
I know that it is very popular to look for Ukraine and Russia as U152 place
of origin, especially in a Kurgan-Yamna IE context, but I am afraid it can
not be verified. Every "far eastern" U152 discovered so far (1 Kazakh, 1
Turkish) belongs to L2+ and I know no U152+ sample from Russia. Being not
L2-, this makes an U152 origin from these areas unlikely. In Hungary, L2-
outnumbers L2+ 3:1 in 4 samples, which is the highest found so far, but may
be a result of low sample numbers. And the Balkans is a Black Hole, it would
be necessary to see if U152 exist there and if yes, which subgroup.
 
Based on the present knowledge, I think U152 appeared in Central Europe,
slightly before Urnfield culture, in the Carpathian Basin or the Northern
Slopes of the Alps in the Rhine-Main-Danube area. New results may change
this but I see no reason for putting the homeland farther East (which does
not mean L11 did not come from Anatolia or Ukraine, it is very likely that
it came...)
 
Best regards
Tibor



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