Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1266792850

From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*
Date: Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:54:10 +0000 (GMT)

 Personally I would leave all the grey areas out and just focus on the simple comparison of MRCA dates for the same P310 derived clades in southern Europe on the one hand and the remainder of Europe on the other.  That provides a sort of crude surrogate for the two main routes east into Europe from its SE extremity.  If a Mediterranean route was taken by P310 then the first area it would hit once free of SE Europe (as usually understood) would be Italy.  If a northern route was taken then what I would call east-central Europe (variously divided up into eastern and central) would have had to have been crossed early on in its movement and that route would also facilitate early access into north-east Europe by the north flowing rivers. 

So, I think a comparison of P310 derived clades MRCAs between southern Europe (especially Italy and the area to the east) on the one hand and east/central/northern Europe on the other is not without an appealing simplicity.  I know there are confidence intervals of several centuries but the contrast in age between the south-east/Italy and parts of the large more northerly east/central/north European area seemed pretty large and was present across the three P310 clades studied.  Unless that is an artifact of the small sample size or some demographic effect (I will leave it to the more mathematical list folk to debate how big/fatal to the conclusions these aspects are) then that really does seem to be telling us something about the route taken by P310. 

A question for Anatole - do your R1b1b2 studies include people who are likely to be in clades upstream of P310 (I think that is called ht35 but am not sure about definitions)?  I just wonder because Tim's results could point suggest to me the possibility of two streams of R1b1b2 into Europe - one an ht35 one moving by a Mediterranean route across SE Europe but not surviving today much past Italy, the other a P310/ht15 group moving first by a Danubian route.  In a model like this they presumably shared a common upstream MRCA somewhere like the Balkans or Aegean area but split into two groups.  Would pooling all the R1b1b2 not give a composite result would make all R1b1b2 look older when it may just be an effect of the ht35 that is being included. 

Just having some fun speculating and I have no problem or silly pride if I am corrected because my reasoning is not mathematically sound.  As long as you do it nicely!  


This thread: