Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1266945798

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : low variance MRCA dates for P310 clades in Italy andSEEurope
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2010 10:23:18 -0700
References: <><009901cab349$8797d6a0$5e82af48@Ken1><>

----- Original Message -----
From: "Alan R" <>

To return to this single issue, what do people think of Tim's low MRCA
variance dates in the south of Europe for three P310 downstream clades . .

Any thoughts on this?

[[ I have my doubts the real statistical confidence intervals for these
TMRCAs permit reaching conclusions of the type you suggest. Remember also;
one can serially try dividing the map E versus W, then N versus S, then NW
versus SE, then SW versus NE...... Eventually, because of TMRCA noise in
the regional numbers, one might eventually "see" a trend in one of the
groupings. Then throw in the fact that if just a not too large sampling of
a haplogroup migrates to a new area, it's variance in the new area should
not necessarily decrease; it could just as well increase; its statistical
confidence interval about expected value goes up even more. Ken ]]

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