Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-03 > 1268495387

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] FW: Genome work ushers in newgeneticera- howcan we mine new data?
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2010 08:49:47 -0700
References: <000001cac2ba$26997fe0$73cc7fa0$@com><006e01cac2bb$db3d9700$5e82af48@Ken1><000001cac2c1$d4507600$7cf16200$@com>

----- Original Message -----
From: "Sandy Paterson" <>

> Some time ago, in the context of the Walk through the Y project, you
> expressed the view that the chances of finding an SNP mutation downstream
> of
> M222+ was about 4 in 10. Was that estimate a function of the process used
> in
> Walk through the Y, or would you make the same estimate for a full genome
> analysis?

[[ Sandy, That number seems high under the simple scenario that comes to
mind. M222+ is quite young. Do you have reference to my message if such
exists? I'd like to know more about the context. Problem is WtheY looks at
just 100,000 sites. If we use a 2 / 100 million average probability of snp
mutation we would expect a snp mutation found for every 500 generations of
branch length of exposure. 4/10 of that is 200 generations or 6000 years.

I believe the M222 snp is substantially younger than that.

There are certainly many, many snps to be found on any M222+ person's y
which are downstream of M222. Problem is that the WtheY only looks at
100,000 sites of the whole y.

Ken ]]

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