Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-03 > 1268618729

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Clades, Definitions, Discoveries, FTDNA
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2010 20:05:29 -0600
References: <><SNT115-W100A5F4E30C0231B9E890ACC2E0@phx.gbl>

----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven Bird" <>
To: <>
Sent: Sunday, March 14, 2010 7:17 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Clades, Definitions, Discoveries, FTDNA

> That really is not going to happen. The mutation rate for SNPs is on the
> order of 1 time 10 to the negative 9th per generation. >

[[ On the contrary. The average rate in the 25 million useful sites of the
y is probably more like 2 / 100 million.

But let's just use your 1 in a billion claimed rate. There are 3 billion
males today. In one generation of them producing male sons there would be
about one occurrence of each and every snp in the y. Every snp has happened
many times in the y tree. But most occurrences have been in the most recent
generations, so are therefore so private-like they will be among the hardest
to be discovered. ]]

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