Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-03 > 1268625708

From: Steven Bird <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Clades, Definitions, Discoveries, FTDNA
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:01:48 -0400
References: <>,<SNT115-W100A5F4E30C0231B9E890ACC2E0@phx.gbl>,<016301cac3e3$fe0b33e0$5e82af48@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <016301cac3e3$fe0b33e0$5e82af48@Ken1>

Couple of comments:

1 X 10-9 is not "my number"; it is quoted from Hartwell "Genetics"; McGraw-Hill (2008), p. 396, ISBN #9780072848464. That is the mutation rate for the entire genome, which consists of 3 billion base pairs. If every male on the planet had a child at the same time, then your argument would hold. However, half of the offspring would be girls. And of course, not all of the boys will have offspring.

Sometimes your tone suggests that you think that I make this stuff up. Believe me, I am always careful about citing sources.


> From:
> To:
> Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2010 20:05:29 -0600
> Subject: Re: [DNA] Clades, Definitions, Discoveries, FTDNA
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steven Bird" <>
> To: <>
> Sent: Sunday, March 14, 2010 7:17 PM
> Subject: Re: [DNA] Clades, Definitions, Discoveries, FTDNA
> >
> > That really is not going to happen. The mutation rate for SNPs is on the
> > order of 1 time 10 to the negative 9th per generation. >
> [[ On the contrary. The average rate in the 25 million useful sites of the
> y is probably more like 2 / 100 million.
> But let's just use your 1 in a billion claimed rate. There are 3 billion
> males today. In one generation of them producing male sons there would be
> about one occurrence of each and every snp in the y. Every snp has happened
> many times in the y tree. But most occurrences have been in the most recent
> generations, so are therefore so private-like they will be among the hardest
> to be discovered. ]]
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