Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-03 > 1269018946

From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Expected NPE's Over 800-1000 Years
Date: Fri, 19 Mar 2010 17:15:46 -0000
References: <> <><013c01cac6d7$ee343e70$5e82af48@Ken1> <000901cac6db$6fecae40$4fc60ac0$@com><016601cac6dd$abc1b030$5e82af48@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <016601cac6dd$abc1b030$5e82af48@Ken1>

The estimate of 2%-5% that I saw came from tissue typing done as part of
organ donation procedures, and simply meant that between 2 and 5 percent of
fathers who offered organs for transplant to their sons were not their
biological fathers. It wasn't clear to me whether the range was a confidence
interval, but if we take it as so, we can use 3.5% as an approximation to
the mean, and recalculate the figures that Nancy Kiser quoted for 25
generations as

(0.965)^25 = 0.41

And sure, this will probably vary significantly from sub-culture to
sub-culture as well as over time.

My interest in this is mainly connected with an interest in Scots clans and
families, which typically exhibit a mixture of haplogroups. Specifically,
the Highland clans almost all have a lower percentage of M222+ that one
would superficially expect from their claimed pedigrees. I think this kind
of illustrative calculation helps put that into perspective.


-----Original Message-----
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Ken Nordtvedt
Sent: 18 March 2010 20:58
Subject: Re: [DNA] Expected NPE's Over 800-1000 Years

----- Original Message -----
From: "Sandy Paterson" <>

> But this isn't where it ends. In land-owning families, there will have
> been instances where a family daughtered out. I can't see a good Scotsman
> (for example) simply handing over the family estates to oblivion. So one
> of his daughters retains the surname and the husband changes his surname
> accordingly. That's not an NPE. So the 49% falls even further.

[[ It all depends on what kinds of events those estimators of NPE rates
threw into their data? They could be including the events like you
describe, or not. I haven't the slightest idea nor am I particularly
interested, as I believe the rate probably varies greatly from sub-culture
to sub-culture. But I would not have too much confidence in my Charlemagne
lineage if someone sent such a thing to me.

I was just not as optimistic as you that the general listers would study the

example and then realize that (1-p)n was meant to be (1-p) raised to the nth

power. Ken ]]

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