GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-03 > 1269019436


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Expected NPE's Over 800-1000 Years
Date: Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:23:56 -0600
References: <4c896.75d9734c.38d3ccce@aol.com> <556261.72153.qm@web53405.mail.re2.yahoo.com><013c01cac6d7$ee343e70$5e82af48@Ken1> <000901cac6db$6fecae40$4fc60ac0$@com><016601cac6dd$abc1b030$5e82af48@Ken1><000001cac787$d1907c60$74b17520$@com>


NPEs contribute in part to what you see. But for the larger clan surnames,
it was simply males associated with powerful families and estates as
workers, soldiers, and the like simply taking their associated clan surname
in the era when it became more popular or required to express surnames.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, March 19, 2010 11:15 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Expected NPE's Over 800-1000 Years


> The estimate of 2%-5% that I saw came from tissue typing done as part of
> organ donation procedures, and simply meant that between 2 and 5 percent
> of
> fathers who offered organs for transplant to their sons were not their
> biological fathers. It wasn't clear to me whether the range was a
> confidence
> interval, but if we take it as so, we can use 3.5% as an approximation to
> the mean, and recalculate the figures that Nancy Kiser quoted for 25
> generations as
>
> (0.965)^25 = 0.41
>
> And sure, this will probably vary significantly from sub-culture to
> sub-culture as well as over time.
>
> My interest in this is mainly connected with an interest in Scots clans
> and
> families, which typically exhibit a mixture of haplogroups. Specifically,
> the Highland clans almost all have a lower percentage of M222+ that one
> would superficially expect from their claimed pedigrees. I think this kind
> of illustrative calculation helps put that into perspective.
>
> Sandy
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
> [mailto:] On Behalf Of Ken Nordtvedt
> Sent: 18 March 2010 20:58
> To:
> Subject: Re: [DNA] Expected NPE's Over 800-1000 Years
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
>
>> But this isn't where it ends. In land-owning families, there will have
>> been instances where a family daughtered out. I can't see a good Scotsman
>> (for example) simply handing over the family estates to oblivion. So one
>> of his daughters retains the surname and the husband changes his surname
>> accordingly. That's not an NPE. So the 49% falls even further.
>
> [[ It all depends on what kinds of events those estimators of NPE rates
> threw into their data? They could be including the events like you
> describe, or not. I haven't the slightest idea nor am I particularly
> interested, as I believe the rate probably varies greatly from sub-culture
> to sub-culture. But I would not have too much confidence in my
> Charlemagne
> lineage if someone sent such a thing to me.
>
> I was just not as optimistic as you that the general listers would study
> the
>
> example and then realize that (1-p)n was meant to be (1-p) raised to the
> nth
>
> power. Ken ]]
>
>
>
>
> -------------------------------
> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to
> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the
> quotes in the subject and the body of the message
>
>
>
> -------------------------------
> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to
> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the
> quotes in the subject and the body of the message
>



This thread: