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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-05 > 1275247491


From: "Ralph Taylor" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] GENEALOGY-DNA using the Soares mtDNA age calculator
Date: Sun, 30 May 2010 13:24:51 -0600
References: <mailman.273.1275202839.12969.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com>
In-Reply-To: <mailman.273.1275202839.12969.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com>


Ken Nordtvedt wrote, "If by accuracy one means the confidence interval about
the expected value, it would be a false claim to suggest it is independent
of demography even in the ideal case... Who ever suggested confidence
intervals were independent of demography of the tree between founder and
present haplotypes?"

And, Vincent Vizachero wrote, "I think there is a genuine ignorance among
publishing authors about how demography impacts TMRCA estimation, both the
expected value and the confidence intervals."

To understand these statements, it would be helpful to have a definition of
"demography" as they use it. Does it mean -- as in social sciences --
income, education, and other social metrics? I'm guessing not, but that's
just a guess.

-rt_/)

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