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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-12 > 1291255255


From: "Anatole Klyosov" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R1b and R1a fate
Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2010 21:00:55 -0500


>From: Vernade Didier

>I would agree but at the moment the group [L11+ , P312- , U106-] is rare (only a dozen of public cases as far as I know) and mainly among present day German and British (Saxon ?) people... Unfortunately also, [L11+, P312-, U106-] haplotypes are very similar to west european R1b haplotypes ; so the search on a haplotype basis isn't a possibility. [L51+ , L11- , P312- U106-] can be searched on the basis of DYS426=13 . Did anyone tried that ?

My response:

Dear Didier, you are right, it is relatively rare. However, 112 and 128 of 67 marker haplotypes (in April in July, 2010, respectively) in the R-ht35 Project [M269+ P312- U106-] is not to sneeze at, thank to the Project Administrators. I have analyzed it in detail and published the results in August, in our Proceedings (vol. 3, No. 8, pp. 1310-1315). A number of the haplotypes (in its 12 marker format, total 266, but not all were assigned to subclades) was as follows (in July), to give an idea of their relative (and absolute) amounts (total assigned were 138):

19 [L23-, L51-, L11-]
80 [L23+, L51-, L11-]
15 [L23+, L51+, L11-]
24 [L23+, L51+, L11+]

The total 67 marker haplotype tree was nice, smooth and symmetrical. It says that the whole dataset likely has one common ancestor. All 128 of 67 marker haplotypes of the tree (July 2010) have the following base (ancestral) haplotype:

12 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 16 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 29 15 15 16 17 -- 11 11 19 23 15 15 17 17 37 38 12 12 -- 11 9 15 16 8 10 10 8 10 10 12 23 23 16 10 12 12 15 8 12 22 20 13 12 11 13 11 11 12 12

All 233 of 25 marker haplotypes of the dataset have the base haplotype

12 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 16 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 29 15 15 16 17

which is identical with the first 25 markers of the 67 marker base haplotype (see above). All 233 have 1933 mutations from the base haplotype, which gives 1933/233/0.046 = 180 -->219 generations of 25 years each (the mutation rate constant of 0.046 mutation per 25 marker haplotype was calibrated for 25 years per generation, for any other number of years per generation the mutation rate constant should be proportionally changed), 180-->219 is the correction for back mutations using the Table published in J. Gen. Geneal. (2009). This gives 5475+/-570 years.

To verify this figure, let's count the number of base haplotypes in the whole dataset. There are 5 of them. So, we have [ln(266/5)]/0.022 = 181-->220 generations from the common ancestor, which is the same 180-->219 generations obtained from the "linear" method. Since the logarithmic and the linear methods give the same figure, it verifies the figure, shows that the margin of error above is perfectly fine (and might be even excessive, but it is O.K.) and shows that the mutation pattern strictly follows the first order kinetics. This in turn witnesses that the mutations are random, and that there was the only one common ancestor for the whole dataset.

This is DNA genealogy. Not population genetics.

Using the same approach, [L23-, L51-, L11-] haplotypes were considered (R-M269*). There was only 10 of them, all of them sit in the upper left-hand side branch of the tree (published, ref. see above). The branch is a double one, one half is a young sub-branch, with a common ancestor of only 800+/-170 ybp. Another subbranch gives 2250+/-370 ybp. Those are young subbranches, and they point at bottlenecks for M269* in Europe. It is hard to get M269* in Europe with a direct ancestry of the ancient common ancestor. Hence, my >6200 ybp from this whole dataset.

[L23+, L51+, L11+] subclade has the base haplotype

13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 16 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 29 15 15 17 17

(two mutations compared to the whole tree are marked as large and bold-font).

All 24 haplotypes of the subclade in the 25 marker format have 170 mutations, which gives 170/24/0.046 = 154-->182, that is 4575+/-580 ybp.

[L23+, L51+, L11-], 14 of 25 marker haplotypes, the base haplotype (here is DYS426=13, that you have mentioned)

13 24 14 11 11 14 13 12 12 13 13 29 -- 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 15 16 17 18

112 mutations in all 14 haplotypes, 5300+/-730 ybp.

A common ancestor of L11 and L51 lived ~ 6140 ybp. It is R-L23.Its base haplotype

12 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 16 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 14 15 16 18

In fact, some of those mutated alleles are fractional (on average), with differences less than 1.

In reality, the tree is "diluted" with recent, secondary common ancestors, and does not show the "ultimate" common ancestor of L23 and M269, first of all. Europe is rather depleted of their direct descendants.

Regards,

Anatole Klyosov

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