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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2011-01 > 1293986430


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] How old is Y-Chromosome Adam?
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2011 09:40:30 -0700
References: <mailman.255.1293782436.1099.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com><3203DE795D7E4D24B6A24928379E156E@anatoldesktop><AANLkTi=F+O4hFtK900wWetyKtfjzJB90r_CYi+5cc8h8@mail.gmail.com><3494E649-D554-4BFA-A206-80C054DBB9B6@vizachero.com><19954443.178870.1293883908917.JavaMail.www@wwinf2233><004001cba9d5$b0498ed0$c2482dae@Ken1><C4D1EA69-E1DC-4EB2-8F2C-E97B0E9971F3@vizachero.com><005a01cba9dc$a6a96650$c2482dae@Ken1><5E0F95F0B965408DB2815855E6B42C45@lop><AANLkTimVz4+h41_r+ZwEv+zhaWaOaVWO8Kf0xih-fV2t@mail.gmail.com><00f901cbaa01$d1a63110$c2482dae@Ken1><AANLkTimQxMy8g-wVgiqzp-4SiQ9RAVBs0PGq+BTjJbAx@mail.gmail.com><D41627AD-C565-4766-B899-2CE421596718@vizachero.com><AANLkTin92hWJUngGsmV8HqLXqC+0Gu_Uzkua0RCeWWLb@mail.gmail.com><DDD7CB70-75CD-48EF-AE59-FFAB4EF9DD5B@vizachero.com><AANLkTi=9ROdk1A2HtC3TtR2rr=nvX73bc0_TgTMm5-7D@mail.gmail.com><1AE3D85C-335B-47A8-9E00-FBE2DCA6E08C@vizachero.com><AANLkTi==3cdHb4ixsNYuGxpp94soYuFH+DG4CJBHMbQU@mail.gmail.com>


----- Original Message -----
From: "Sasson Margaliot" <>

> Maybe it's slow markers that produce absurdly HIGH estimates?
>
>
> Sasson


I don't know about "absurdly high", but there is suspicion that the very
slowest STR rates have been systematically underestimated.

But one thing is certain; the very slowest STRs individually yield rate
estimates with gigantic statistical uncertainties, especially on the down
side if one is quoting ratios.

Look at it this way; an STR with mutation rate of 1/10000 has only about a
one in 2 chance to mutate once in an estimate A to R tree with actual age
of 2500 generations. The statistical flucuations are larger than the
"expected value". Such a tree stands about a 50 percent chance of
predicting zero TMRCA (no mutation) according to standard procedures.


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