GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2011-08 > 1313004810


From: Mike W <>
Subject: [DNA] The fate of R-L11 in Europe
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2011 14:33:30 -0500


For the last two years, whenever I've calculated variance by country for
R-P312 "All" I get results that match Myres' 2010 study in that France
always has a very high variance. One problem, however, is there just aren't
many R-P312 haplotypes available in our DNA projects with MDKA's from
East/Central Europe (anything east of Germany.)

With the advent of R-P312 subclade Z196 and additional testing, the number
of haplotypes is edging up so I ran the variance calculations again. To keep
the sample size up, I backed down to 37 or greater length haplotypes. I used
only the 25 non-multicopy markers and calculated sum of the variance
relative to a base = 1.0 to make it easier to compare. I express the caveats
that we still need larger samples, a better cross-section of Europe/W/SW
Asia and I'd prefer to use only 67 length haplotypes.

I was startled a bit to find East/Central Europe came up higher than France,
so I broke the countries out as best I could. It didn't change the essence
of the ranking.

Hungary_____________: Var=1.31 (N=15)
Baltic states_______: Var=1.24 (N=15)
Belarus/Russia/Ukrai: Var=1.23 (N=26)
Poland______________: Var=1.15 (N=26)
France______________: Var=1.12 (N=188)
Czech Rep.__________: Var=1.10 (N=12)
England_____________: Var=1.03 (N=540)
Nordic area_________: Var=1.02 (N=71)
Germany_____________: Var=1.01 (N=181)
Switzerland_________: Var=0.98 (N=43)
Italy_______________: Var=0.96 (N=60)
Ireland_____________: Var=0.94 (N=935)
Wales_______________: Var=0.93 (N=91)
Iberia______________: Var=0.92 (N=494)
Low Countries_______: Var=0.91 (N=43)
Scotland____________: Var=0.90 (N=463)

It's a bit of twist, but the variance runs just about polar opposite to the
frequency.

I've never been able to figure out how a Mediterranean route into Europe
worked for R-P312, at least when looking at the Y STR variance and the SNP
phylogenetic trail. It seems like the more data and the more resolution, the
more indications are that R-P312 moved east to west across the core of the
continent. We still don't have many R-P312 haplotypes from the Balkan
Peninsula, but if I add the Italian Peninsula together with Greece, Croatia,
Algeria and Malta I get this result:

East Mediterranean__: Var=0.90 (N=27)

If I just look at the Balkans, this is all we get. I don't think this is a
high enough count (only 4) to mean anything, but here it is:

Greece/Croatia______: Var=0.85 (N=4)

This is not to say that some R-L11* or R-M269 L11- uncles and cousins didn't
come across the boot of Italy and into Iberia at an early period, but I
don't think that's what happened with R-P312. Keep in mind, R1b in Western
Europe is about 96% R-L11 (P312 + U106 + L11*.)

It has always been perplexing that R-U106, R-P312 and R-L11 all have TMRCA
aging of about the same time, but (according to Myres) R-U106 showed higher
variance in the Baltic states than in Western Europe whereas R-P312 showed
higher variance in France. The jury is still out, but perhaps R-P312's
launching points are pretty close to U106's after all.

I wish we had more R-P312 data from the Near East, Anatolia and the
Caucasus. We know there is some R-P312 in Anatolia. I guess I should wish
for more Romanian data as well. We probably have to look deeper at the
R-L11* brothers in these areas as well as R-L23 L11- cousins.

Any new news on the R-U106 or R-L11* fronts?

Regards,
Mike

This thread: