GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2011-08 > 1313088390

From: David Johnston <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] exact match at 67
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2011 13:46:30 -0500
References: <005801cc574b\$96bb1af0\$c43150d0\$@dgmweb.net> <CAKWx04SbrJFe_UDuKKBnSY2wxTX2b6BE6KVJmjhjb27M5gHD-g@mail.gmail.com> <950D783B573A4FE78DD7CD26F8C8DB53@jimpc> <CAKWx04SAWri+7oaHsDsp3dUfjY10AY3He7gCgbiNOmdY-o0K1A@mail.gmail.com> <4e43c01b.46b0340a.182f.4774@mx.google.com><009e01cc5853\$e3c54d30\$ab4fe790\$@dgmweb.net>

On 8/11/11 1:24 PM, Diana Gale Matthiesen wrote:
> The answer is you cannot, and you cannot because mutations are random.
>
>
Come on Diana. You keep making this argument but it doesn't make any
sense. Assuming we trust the mutation rates, we can write down the
probability at each generation. What you do with those probabilities is
up to you. But it is indeed useful to know what is likely and what is
not and to have quantitative assessments of those probabilities.
> I have brothers who match 66/67, a father-son who match 66/67, and an
> uncle-nephew who match 65/67. At the other extreme, I have eighth
> cousins matching 111/111 (and 134/136).
>
>
You have an enormous database of people in your projects. Occasionally
you are going to find cases where unlikely things happened. That doesn't
mean the statement that they were unlikely beforehand was incorrect. It
is just that you cherry picked a few coincidences to argue that math
said something was unlikely, yet it happened.

It is very unlikely that anyone will get struck by lightning in their
lifetime. We have enormous amounts of data which show that. Yet people
get struck by lightning and when they do, this statement, while still
true, won't comfort them very much. Yet it doesn't mean that the
statement is wrong or worthless.
> almost certainly related in genealogical time. Beyond that, they
> could connect, literally, anywhere along the line.
>
>
Yes it could be anywhere but some are much more likely than others and
that should be important to know.
Dave

• [DNA] 111 marker modal for R-P312? by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] 111 marker modal for R-P312? by Mike W <>
• Re: [DNA] 111 marker modal for R-P312? by "Jim White" <>
• Re: [DNA] 111 marker modal for R-P312? by Mike W <>
• [DNA] exact match at 67 by Aggi-Rose Reddin <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Bill <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Bill <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Bill <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Marianne Granoff <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Ann Turner <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by Martin Potter <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by Martin Potter <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by CeCe Moore <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by Dwight Holmes <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by CeCe Moore <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by Dwight Holmes <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by CeCe Moore <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by "Kenneth Nordtvedt" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken by Lplantagenet <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken by "Kenneth Nordtvedt" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken by "Kenneth Nordtvedt" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken by Lplantagenet <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken by "Kenneth Nordtvedt" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE, 67-markers and Names/Ken /Ancient DNA Lines by Lplantagenet <>
• [DNA] Rollo by "Kenneth Nordtvedt" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by Sam Sloan <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by John M Rhodes <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by Phil Ritter <>
• [DNA] NPE by "Debbie Kennett" <>
• Re: [DNA] NPE by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] Scandinavia (was NPE) by CeCe Moore <>
• Re: [DNA] Scandinavia (was NPE) by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Tim Janzen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Keith Britton <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Anne M Berge <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Aggi-Rose Reddin <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Aggi-Rose Reddin <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Thaddeus Dabrowski <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Aggi-Rose Reddin <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
•  Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Belinda Dettmann" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by (John Chandler)
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by (John Chandler)
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by (John Chandler)
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by (John Chandler)
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Sandy Paterson" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Sandy Paterson" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Sandy Paterson" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "M. A. Farrell" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Dave Hamm <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Ann Turner <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Irish III DNA" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "M. A. Farrell" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by David Johnston <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Fred Westcott <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "Diana Gale Matthiesen" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by "M. A. Farrell" <>
• Re: [DNA] exact match at 67 by Dave Hamm <>
• Re: [DNA] 111 marker modal for R-P312? by "Jim White" <>