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From: Kim Ostermyer <>
Subject: Re: [TGF] Statistical evidence (was Social Commentary from beyondthe grave)
Date: Tue, 25 May 2010 11:53:55 -0700 (PDT)
References: <1180940819.748371.1274655140328.JavaMail.root@vms170049><AANLkTimaErTF7_UWgzpyD40pH1XrXutFmcanebm-TAcb@mail.gmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <AANLkTimaErTF7_UWgzpyD40pH1XrXutFmcanebm-TAcb@mail.gmail.com>


Patti said:

"I knew someone whose life was saved in a car accident because he/she wasn't
wearing a seat belt. How many people do you know that make decisions based
on the anecdotal evidence of those around them? I do (know people) and I do
(make decisions based on the experiences of those I trust).

Statistical evidence and everyday reality don't always correspond."

Patti,
While your example of your friend surviving the car accident makes sense, it actually does hold true to the statistical data. According to statistics from James Madison University (http://www.jmu.edu/safetyplan/vehicle/generaldriver/safetybelt.shtml), 35,000 people die in vehicular accidents each year. Other numbers show that a person is 25 times more likely to die if thrown from the vehicle. Of relevance to this discussion is that an estimated 80 percent of American children area immunized against
contagious diseases, but less than 10 percent are properly restrained
when riding in a motor vehicle. My least favorite thing to see is a car with young children in the back seat who are secured in carseats or seat belts, but the parent is not--even though both are required by law (at least here in Utah).

Your friend was in the that same data set, just not the higher statistic. In other words, your friend beat the odds. However, research shows that wearing a seat belt has many more benefits in terms of safety versus the alternative.

The World Health Organization has some interesting information on smallpox:

*Smallpox killed Queen Mary II of England, Emperor Joseph I of Austria,
King Luis I of Spain, Tsar Peter II of Russia, Queen Ulrika Elenora of
Sweden, and King Louis XV of France.

*The disease, for which no effective treatment was ever developed,
killed as many as 30% of those infected. Between 65–80% of survivors
were marked with deep pitted scars (pockmarks), most prominent on the
face.


*Blindness was another complication. In 18th century Europe, a third
of all reported cases of blindness was due to smallpox. In a survey
conducted in Viet Nam in 1898, 95% of adolescent children were
pockmarked and nine-tenths of all blindness was ascribed to smallpox.

*As late as the 18th century, smallpox killed every 10th child born in
Sweden and France. During the same century, every 7th child born in
Russia died from smallpox.
*In the early 1950s – 150 years after the introduction of vaccination –
an estimated 50 million cases of smallpox occurred in the world each
year, a figure which fell to around 10–15 million by 1967 because of
vaccination.

*In 1967, when WHO launched an intensified plan to eradicate smallpox,
the "ancient scourge" threatened 60% of the world's population, killed
every fourth victim, scarred or blinded most survivors, and eluded any
form of treatment.

~Kim Ostermyer




________________________________
From: Patti Hobbs <>
To:
Sent: Mon, May 24, 2010 6:19:54 PM
Subject: Re: [TGF] Social Commentary from beyond the grave

I guess I just don't want to drop this thread yet.:-) I think people very
much knew how dangerous smallpox was. And even though I gave those
statistics from the book which showed that 15% died who got the disease vs
2% who got the innoculation, to get one is beyond one's control, but to get
the other (the innoculation) is a conscious decision. We can't just compare
those two rates and directly compare them because we don't know how many of
those who got innoculated would have gotten the disease or not. I don't know
how widespread the knowledge was about those statistical rates. They didn't
have TV or the Internet.:-)

You know that you will get the disease if you get innoculated; whereas, you
may not catch smallpox at all -- especially if you do things to avoid
contact. I think I can relate to the difficulty in making the decision. Even
given the facts and assuming their correctness, how many of us still don't
do what we should do or do what we shouldn't do?

I knew someone whose life was saved in a car accident because he/she wasn't
wearing a seat belt. How many people do you know that make decisions based
on the anecdotal evidence of those around them? I do (know people) and I do
(make decisions based on the experiences of those I trust).


Patti

On Sun, May 23, 2010 at 5:52 PM, <> wrote:

>
> Melissa, Michael and all:
>
> This is an eye opener for me, as I had no idea that innoculations for
> small
> pox had begun that early. I am a Baby Boomer who still wears the scar as
> a
> result of my innoculation.
>
>
>
> But as for the commentary by the viccar... I can only think that if there
> was a cost involved to get the innoculation, perhaps these people he was
> commenting on we too poor, or perhaps not educated enough to know how
> dangerous small pox was.
>
>
>
> Which brings me to my own mother. When she was a child, she said tended
> to
> bring home diseases from school and then the family would get sick. She
> was
> sick with small pox and her father nearly died of it. Her mother [my
> grandmother] said that their house was quarantined and people would
> deliver
> things and leave them on the porch, but no one could collect the money
> for
> the groceries until the quarantine was over. As difficult as their
> financial circumstances were in the 1920s and 1930s, it is no wonder they
> didn't get innoculated. Though hard workers, they were quite poor and
> concerned themselves with bare necessities.
>
>
>
> Just my thoughts...
>
>
>
> Has anyone heard of "spotted fever"? Not to be confused with Rocky
> Mountain
> Spotted fever. A doctor once told me this was a former name for small
> pox.
> Anyone know for sure?
>
> Cheryl Proctor
> Old Capitol Research Genealogical and Historical Services
> www.oldcapitolresearch.com
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