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Archiver > Y-DNA-HAPLOGROUP-I > 2010-06 > 1276359730


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [yDNAhgI] Age of I2a1 n' stuff
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2010 10:22:10 -0600
References: <COL103-W2546248642A2E9627CB08BCEDA0@phx.gbl><COL103-W68E61E750B5112623C843CEDA0@phx.gbl>


Wil, I did the interclade node age again, and I believe I will be
disappointing you.

I get slightly over 6000 years for L160-, but only about 4200 years for
L160+

The interclade node age estimate for L160- / L160+ is about the same age as
the L160- age.

So it seems I made the same mistake for the 9000 year estimate --- not
handling the 425 nulls and 11-11 or 21-21 YCA values properly.

Some time ago I put out a challenge to anyone to show me to a clade tmrca
much older than about this 6000 year figure. I am sure there must be some
in the world. But they have not been forthcoming.

The world was just too hostile to substantial clade growth earlier than
about that time. So the first introduction of agriculture was not the big
turning point in human demography; it seems some later technological
revolution connected with agricultural societies was key?

Extinction rates of y lines have to fall before these bushy clades can take
off.



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