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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-01 > 1105566882


From: Charles <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Male Line Specific Y-STR Average Mutation Rates -- theone size shoe/(haplotype mutation rate) fits all approach is not valid,imo -- corrected URL link
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 16:54:49 -0500
References: <41E5775C.7060302@kerchner.com> <REME20050112155719@alum.mit.edu>
In-Reply-To: <REME20050112155719@alum.mit.edu>


John,

The tyranny of the average and statistics. ;-)

Increase my simple example which yields a bi-modal plot ... to about 100
male line surname projects and plot a histogram of the various mutation
rates for 100 surname projects and you will get a better idea of what I
am suggesting. I am not predicting bi-modality. It will be a "normal"
distribution histogram plot, imo. We may get to the same average rate
for the overall male population but it will show that the surname
project average rate varies dramatically from one surname project to
another. Most of the mutation rate studies done up until now were
studies of a few thousand male father-son pairs or other methods or
analysis of sperm cells, etc. This new method I am proposing will
calculate rates within a male family line (a Y chromosome line) and then
plot those on a histogram chart. We should come out with the same
overall average. But still each family lines can be significantly
different from one another.

This is what I am suggesting:
I think a surname project specific male line average rate is determined
by some hereto now unproven chemical process controlled by the inner
working of the male line's specific Y chromosome. All that junk DNA may
not be just junk. Some have suggest the mechanism is that Y chromosomes
have the ability to repair/correct mutations during the copying process
and that some Y chromosomes are better at it than others. Thus one male
line mutates at a net rate much different that another.

The underlying data elements that go into calculating that average is
what interests me with my theory and the new Log.

Time will tell. If it turns out I'm right, I'll remind you. :-)
And someone can nominate me for a prize for stimulating thinking outside
the box. :-)

My new Log is meant to start collecting data from Surname Project
Administrators like myself, the Hurst project, and hopefully hundreds of
projects, and to stimulate more eyeballs to look at this. So surname
project admins (whether of size 9 or 50), visit my new log below, make
the calculations and submit your data.

Synergy at Work!

Charles Kerchner
Surname Projects YSTR Average Mutation Rate Log:
http://www.kerchner.com/cgi-kerchner/ystrmutationrate.cgi
http://www.kerchner.com/dnamutationrates.htm
http://www.kerchner.com/dna-info.htm

John Chandler wrote:
> FACT: if, instead, you pull in 500 Smith-type groups and 500 Jones-type
> groups, the histogram will look very different. It will be bi-modal,
> with peaks at 0.005 and 0.001. This will be an earth-shaking discovery
> and win fame all around. Good luck.
>
> John Chandler


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