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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-01 > 1105732849


From: Charles <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Male Line Specific Y-STR Average Mutation Rates
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 15:00:51 -0500
References: <1d7.3442b87e.2f18a27e@aol.com> <41E7533A.5010302@kerchner.com>
In-Reply-To: <41E7533A.5010302@kerchner.com>


Re-send of message I sent last night which did not get through.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Ann,

And further to my hypothesis and your suggested game of pulling cards
from a deck of cards and counting the hearts, suppose I made up 1000
decks of cards each with a different number of hearts in it, some more
and some less, but with the number of hearts in each deck approximating
a normal curve distribution centered around the number of hearts in a
standard deck cards and thus the average number of heart in all 1000 of
my stacked decks was the same as number of hearts in 1 standard deck ...
and then I played a series of games like you did but with each different
deck, all 1000 of them. And then I averaged together the different modal
values for the number of hearts counted for each hand obtained from
playing with each deck, the average of all the histograms plotted for
the 1000 decks being played from would still be 3, the same as the
standard deck, yes/no? So different decks being played simultaneously
can yield the same average number of hearts as a standard deck. Thus for
male sampling, the same analogy would apply. The average of the averages
for male specific line mutation rates would agree with the random sample
of the entire male population as a whole as obtained via the prior
studies that have done.

It is simply that with my hypothesis each male line has its own average
rate which randomly varies about its own average. And all the male lines
then in turn contribute to the overall male population average mutation
rate we so commonly see quoted whether its the historical .002, or the
newer .003 or .004 surmises for the overall average rate of the entire
male population for all Y-STR markers.

But we also need to remember that the overall average male population
marker mutation rate of course would depend on which markers were being
included in the particular male population study to determine those
rates, since we now know that marker average rates vary dramatically as
shown in that slide shown at the FamilyTreeDNA conference in October.
That is why I am collecting data for the various haplotype sizes. The
early panel has the early markers used in the early whole population
studies.

I believe that the Y-STR Haplotype Average Mutation Rate is male line to
male line specific. Each male line with its own average mutation rate
and randomness centered around its own average rate.

Charles Kerchner
http://www.kerchner.com/cgi-kerchner/ystrmutationrate.cgi
http://www.kerchner.com/dnamutationrates.htm


Charles wrote:
> Ann,
>
> OK let's play some show me.
>
> You're playing your game with the same underlying mechanism...one
standardized deck of cards. The assumes the basic mutation rate for all
males is basically the same. The point of my theory is assuming
something different is going on in each male line's Y chromosome. Some
mechanism we don't understand.
>
> Let's say that counting the hearts as mutations in your analogy. You
got a modal value of 3 with your experiment, or let's say that equates
to an average line mutation rate of .003.
>
> What if every male line has a different deck of cards. Each deck
would have the same total number of cards as in a standard deck. But
some decks would have four more hearts and less other suits and some
with six more hearts in it and less other suits. And another male line
has a deck with four less hearts in it, etc. and another male line has a
deck with six less hearts in it, etc. Same number of total cards but a
different amount of hearts (potential mutations that can occur for the
simulation game you suggested) at random using your game. It is still a
random process within the specific male line, but since each male line
has a different deck of cards, one male with a deck with more hearts
(potential mutations in his games), and another with less hears
(potential mutations in his games), the number of hearts obtained
typically would not be the same for each game comparing a game played
with one standardized deck and other games played with different heart
amount containing decks.
>
> Does that help you see what I am trying to say. Not all male lines
are playing from the same deck. Humor intended.
>
> I think that the Y chromosome has some unknown to us mechanism such
that results in a net average mutation rate that is different from male
line to male line. It will still be random within the male line but the
average mutation rate will be different from male line to male line. In
the hearts in the deck analogy, each male line is using a different deck
of cards, some with more hearts and another line has a deck with less
hearts.
>
> Do this help you see my point? We need to think outside the box of
conventional wisdom on this subject. I don't think one rate fits all. I
think something is going on with each male line Y chromosome's average
mutation rate which makes the average rate vary from one male line
(surname project) to the other. And of course that underlying mechanism
is being passed down over the generations from father to son.
>
> We need more data in an organized central location. You mention all
the random anecdotal comments on the List. Well I'm going to try and
consolidate the data so the power of synergy and numbers makes or breaks
my point. Same thing I did with all the random comments about the
DNAPrint test and East Asian vs. Native American. Let's pool all the
anecdotal evidence and see what falls out of the data when looked at as
a whole. My Log will collect the data. Whit and I and others will
analyze it. And if interesting things show up, maybe some population
geneticist and scientists will dig deeper into this hypothesis of mine.
>
> I invite all surname project administrators who have a known common
male ancestor for their project participants and know or can triangulate
the ancestral haplotype, to join my new Log project.
>
> Synergy at Work!
>
> Charles Kerchner
> http://www.kerchner.com/cgi-kerchner/ystrmutationrate.cgi
> http://www.kerchner.com/dnamutationrates.htm

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