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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-01 > 1105745482
From: Ruy Cardoso <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Male Line Specific Y-STR Average Mutation Rates
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 15:31:22 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <200501142232.j0EMWd0n028578@lists5.rootsweb.com>
> From: Charles <>
>
> Ann,
>
> And further to my hypothesis and your suggested game
> of pulling cards from a deck of cards and counting
> the hearts, suppose I made up 1000 decks of cards
> each with a different number of hearts in it, some
[snip]
Y'all need some terminology. Try these two terms:
(1) process risk, and (2) parameter risk.
Essentially, the first corresponds to the different
values (number of hearts) that you get from Ann's
original analogy, the one where the number of hearts
in the deck is known. The second corresponds to the
hypothesized ignorance of the number of hearts in the
deck that Charles is trying to get across.
If all you have are the outcomes from the experiment,
then you can break the variation into the
corresponding two pieces: X amount of variation is
what you would expect if there were in fact 13 hearts
in the deck and if you ran the experiment Y number of
times. Pretty much any variation beyond that could be
considered as coming from parameter risk (if you
define parameter risk broadly enough). One could make
the analogy more complicated, of course -- vary the
total number of cards in the deck, for example -- but
I think you might find these two terms to come in
handy for the purpose of moving this discussion along.
Ruy Cardoso
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