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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-01 > 1105747068


From: Charles <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Male Line Specific Y-STR Average Mutation Rates
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 18:57:48 -0500
References: <20050114233122.3430.qmail@web60908.mail.yahoo.com>
In-Reply-To: <20050114233122.3430.qmail@web60908.mail.yahoo.com>


Ruy,

Thank you for your input. I will have to read up on those two terms.

Charles Kerchner
Emmaus PA
Y-STR Haplotype Average Mutation Rate Log:
http://www.kerchner.com/cgi-kerchner/ystrmutationrate.cgi

Ruy Cardoso wrote:

>>From: Charles <>
>>
>>Ann,
>>
>>And further to my hypothesis and your suggested game
>>of pulling cards from a deck of cards and counting
>>the hearts, suppose I made up 1000 decks of cards
>>each with a different number of hearts in it, some
>
>
> [snip]
>
> Y'all need some terminology. Try these two terms:
> (1) process risk, and (2) parameter risk.
> Essentially, the first corresponds to the different
> values (number of hearts) that you get from Ann's
> original analogy, the one where the number of hearts
> in the deck is known. The second corresponds to the
> hypothesized ignorance of the number of hearts in the
> deck that Charles is trying to get across.
>
> If all you have are the outcomes from the experiment,
> then you can break the variation into the
> corresponding two pieces: X amount of variation is
> what you would expect if there were in fact 13 hearts
> in the deck and if you ran the experiment Y number of
> times. Pretty much any variation beyond that could be
> considered as coming from parameter risk (if you
> define parameter risk broadly enough). One could make
> the analogy more complicated, of course -- vary the
> total number of cards in the deck, for example -- but
> I think you might find these two terms to come in
> handy for the purpose of moving this discussion along.
>
> Ruy Cardoso
>
>
>
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