GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-02 > 1172195694


From: Vincent Vizachero <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2007 19:54:54 -0600
References: <101066.72007.qm@web31502.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
In-Reply-To: <101066.72007.qm@web31502.mail.mud.yahoo.com>


On Feb 22, 2007, at 3:51 PM, Jonathan Day wrote:

> The implication of I1a being different from the others
> is that mutations are not wholly independent random
> events, assuming the difference is real and not just a
> product of there being insufficient published data.

That is not an implication of what I wrote. The theory that markers
with longer alleles mutate more quickly than markers with shorter
alleles can be tested does not have any inherent path dependencies.

The theory that some haplogroups might have a different average
mutation rate than other groups theory flows from the observation
that some haplogroups have longer alleles on average than other
groups. I1a was held up as an example of a group whose average
allele length is most different from the overall average, and the
data show that even in this extreme case that the effect of allele
length on the overall mutation rate is de minimis.

> The principle underlying most calculations involving
> probabilities is that future events are independent of
> any past events.

That's true, but not really relevant to the question I was addressing.

Vince

This thread: