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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-05 > 1211547388


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] M222/S21/S28
Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 06:56:28 -0600
References: <01bb01c8bb6a$4d8776b0$6400a8c0@Ken1><200805211820.m4LIKFo9027626@mail.rootsweb.com><000001c8bbf1$d33b7220$0201a8c0@owner8151f88a9><00e101c8bc18$99b71a50$6400a8c0@Ken1><000a01c8bc2a$997180a0$0201a8c0@owner8151f88a9><005301c8bc39$d63dc7f0$6400a8c0@Ken1><000001c8bcc3$d0217f80$0201a8c0@owner8151f88a9>


Those curves are already done and published on my website. I will point you
to the link and describe what you will be seeing in a message later this
morning.




----- Original Message -----
From: "Sandy Paterson" <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2008 4:57 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] M222/S21/S28


> Hi Ken
>
> We don't seem to be getting anywhere with this, so let my try to sum up
> and
> then suggest a slightly different approach.
>
> 1. I have a model that estimates the age of a haplogroup.
> 2. I suspect that my model underestimates age by the order of about 50%.
> 3. It seems that the model that you use may underestimate age as well.
>
> Why don't we simply test them?
>
> As far as I can make out, you are able to produce simulated frequency
> distributions of marker scores for given mutation rates after T
> generations.
>
> Why don't you simulate say 10 marker distributions of different ages, and
> post them on the list giving the mutation rates you used, but not the
> ages.
>
> I'll then post my age estimates in terms of number of generations.
>
> You then post the number of generations that you used in your simulations
> and we will then be able to see whether I'm right that my model
> systematically underestimates age.
>
> You can then give the age estimates from the model you use based on the
> simulated frequency distributions and see whether there's a similarity
> in underestimation.
>
> Am I missing something?
>
>
> Sandy Paterson
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
> [mailto:] On Behalf Of Ken Nordtvedt
> Sent: 22 May 2008 19:30
> To:
> Subject: Re: [DNA] M222/S21/S28
>
> No one that I know of is trying to count generations since SNP mutations.
> It really can't be done --- SNPs can only be bracketed between a preceding
> MRCA and a postceding MRCA.
>
> If you think there is a "problem", first state how you think others are
> counting mutational opportunities, and opportunities for what purpose?
> Otherwise it is hard to follow what you are talking about in your
> scenarios.
>
> Many mutational opportunities are totally irrelevant to contributing to
> what
>
> we see in haplotype sample populations, and usually those latter are what
> we
>
> are concerned about.
>
> Ken
>
>
>
>
>
>
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