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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1266372430


From: "Tim Janzen" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*
Date: Tue, 16 Feb 2010 18:07:10 -0800
In-Reply-To: <959831.33200.qm@web86601.mail.ird.yahoo.com>


Dear Alan,
I would love to have more R-S116/P312* 67-marker haplotypes for
analysis. There are undoubtedly more haplotypes in other FTDNA projects,
but locating them all would be a challenge. I agree that there is some
variation in the TMRCA estimates depending on the markers chosen for
analysis, but in any case there is less variance in Southern Europe than
elsewhere. The results could change as more data becomes available. Like
you, I was somewhat surprised by the results. I thought that there was a
reasonable chance that the results would suggest increased variance in
Spain, Italy, and elsewhere in southern Europe.
I agree with Vince's comments on the usefulness of intraclade
variance testing. I believe it is helpful for looking at areas of probable
origin, but this method doesn't provide TMRCA estimates that are quite as
accurate as the interclade variance method. That said, the intraclade
estimate for all 124 of the 67-marker haplotypes I included in the
R-S116/P312* analysis was 3370 years for 50 markers, 4213 for the 10 YHRD
markers using YHRD mutation rates and 4281 using the 24 slow markers. This
is somewhat lower than the interclade TMRCA estimates I got for various
nodes just downstream from the R-P312/S116 node included in my message at
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2009-07/12468584
73, but not substantially lower than those estimates.
I decided to take a look at the R-U152 data from Charles Kerchner's
project at http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R1b-U152/default.aspx and
from David Faux's database at http://www.davidkfaux.org/R1b1c10_Data.htm.
After removing the duplicate haplotypes I was left with 146 37-marker or
67-marker haplotypes that trace their origins to Switzerland or the
surrounding vicinity. I categorized these haplotypes into 7 countries or
regions:
1. SE Europe and Ukraine
2. Italy
3. Germany
4. Switzerland
5. France
6. Spain
7. NE Europe (Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia)

Below are intraclade TMRCA estimates using various marker sets for
groups of haplotypes from the above countries or regions. As with the
R-S116/P312* data, the R-U152 data shows a significant increase in variance
in SE Europe. The hypothesis best supported by the data is that R-U152
(possibly along with R-S116/P312*) moved along a route through southeastern
Europe to the west (possibly along the Danube as you suggest). The data
would suggest that the R-U152 SNP occurred somewhere in southeastern Europe,
Russia, or Ukraine. R-U152 reaches it highest concentration currently in
and around Switzerland. In my opinion, it is probable that R-U152
originally moved into Switzerland from the north or from the east. It also
seems clear that R-U152 moved in Italy relatively recently. I would also
like to point out that Tibor Feher has recently written a nice summary of
the R-U152 data at which is at
http://www.kerchner.com/r1bu152project/u152shortessay20100112.pdf. He
suggests that the R-U152 SNP occurred about 3600 years ago. I think that
this is on the low side and I would be inclined to think that the R-U152 SNP
occurred somewhere around 4000 to 5000 years ago.

Sincerely,
Tim Janzen

12 67-marker samples from SE Europe and Ukraine:
50 markers:3944
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 5562
24 slow markers: 9972

21 37-marker samples from SE Europe and Ukraine:
25 markers:4083
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 4410

9 67-marker samples from NE Europe (Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia):
50 markers:3520
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2646
24 slow markers: 8093

11 37-marker samples from NE Europe (Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and
Latvia): 3243
25 markers:
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2312

9 67-marker samples from Italy:
50 markers:2326
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2377
24 slow markers: 3854

19 37-marker samples from Italy:
25 markers:2447
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2667

25 67-marker samples from Germany:
50 markers:3378
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3371
24 slow markers: 9890

41 37-marker samples from Germany:
25 markers:2951
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3553

14 67-marker samples from Switzerland:
50 markers:3116
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2761
24 slow markers: 6466

22 37-marker samples from Switzerland:
25 markers:2501
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2841

13 67-marker samples from the France:
50 markers:3938
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2450
24 slow markers: 3473

23 37-marker samples from France:
25 markers: 4275
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3756

3 67-marker samples from Spain:
50 markers:2059
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2422
24 slow markers: 7631

9 37-marker samples from Spain:
25 markers: 3283
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3588

Averages of the TMRCA for each of the regions above:
SE Europe and Ukraine: 5594
NE Europe: 3963
Italy: 2734
Germany: 4629
Switzerland: 3537
France: 3578
Spain: 3797

Sincerely,
Tim

-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Alan R
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2010 3:15 AM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*

Tim

Thanks for doing those calculations.  I kind of hoped you would when I
posted!  I am surprised by the results to some degree and broadly speaking
it would best support an east-west movement from eastern to west-central
Europe before spreading elsewhere.  I had thought a route along the Med.
from the east to Italy to France/Spain then the north through France or
perhaps a dual Med. and Danubian route more likely. 

One other thing that springs to mind is having a similar look at the
regional differences between the variance of U152 south of the Alps in Italy
with that from north of the Alps in Switzerland/south Germany etc.   I
suspect sample number may be a big issue again though. 

Regards,

Alan



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